Nfl Betting Tips Against The Spread
This matchup report includes odds, betting predictions and a free pick against the spread. Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction, NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 15 by Guy Bruhn - 12. A common phrase heard from experienced football bettors is: “I don’t bet teams, I bet numbers.” Picking the winning team in a football game isn’t easy. It’s even more difficult to place a winning wager on a game that involves a point spread or total. Bettors look for key numbers.These numbers in football betting (and to a lesser extent basketball) are the most common margin of.
What is Betting Against The Spread? For each NFL game the oddsmakers set a number of points in which the favored team is favored. Bettors can then either choose for the favored team to win by more than the number of points set, or bet on the underdogs to lose by less than the number of points they are underdogs by or win the game straight up. For example, the spread could be set on the favored team at 6.5 points. This would mean in order for a bet on the favored team on the spread.
Week 16 is in the books, so For The Win’s Luke Kerr-Dineen, Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz are back with their final slate of NFL picks. All odds courtesy of Bovada…
RECAP
Steven: 4-10-2 (112-100-10)
Luke: 9-5-2 (108-104-10)
Charles: 8-6-2 (97-119-10)
Steven: Feeling a lot like Luke, a Falcons fan, was in the middle of the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LI.
Luke: I’m so close to Steven’s lead I can taste it. I want it. I need it. Let’s do this.
Charles: I’ll make my picks, but really, this is how I feel about this development with Luke and Steven:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7)
Steven: The Lions defense is complex enough to give a green passer like Brett Hundley problems, and the Packers secondary will get torched by Matthew Stafford. Lions.
Luke: I don’t trust this Lions team, even though I expect them to win this game. The Packers will bounce back enough to cover.
Charles: This matchup doesn’t deserve a spread of seven even with the Packers struggling, so I’ll stomach the points.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Steven: With the Eagles resting starters I just don’t see them keeping this game close. I’ll lay the points.
Luke: A full-strength Philly is a lock. That’s not going to be the case this time around. Cowboys.
Charles: Nick Foles and the offense might not even see the field. Take the Cowboys.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15.5)
Steven: The Patriots still have something to play for and the Jets are still stuck with Bryce Petty at quarterback. I’m not scared off by that big line — give me New England.
Luke: I sense a back door cover here. That’s just a lot of points to give a team that tends to keep games close.
Charles: Again, we have to factor in how long the Pats keep their starters in, even though they’re playing for the No. 1 seed. Here’s how I see this game playing out: With the Pats up 33-6 at the half, they bench Tom Brady and Co. and win by less than 15.5.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+3.5)
Steven: The Giants are imploding and this is Kirk Cousins’ last opportunity to show out before hitting what should be an interesting offseason. He plays well against a team in shambles and the Redskins cover.
Luke: Home underdogs against an unconvincing Washington team is tempting, but I just can’t justify backing the Giants after a season of so many underwhelming results.
Charles: This is ridiculously easy. Redskins, with Kirk Cousins playing his best game of the season to prove he’s worth a big free-agent contract.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-12)
Steven: That’s too many points to lay against this Bears team that has been competitive all season. Mitchell Trubisky has played well of late and should be able to keep things close.
Luke: I love this Vikings team, but the Bears aren’t a bad team. I don’t see Minnesota’s offense storming more than 12 points away.
Charles: I’m pulling one last Costanza here and taking the Vikes when my head says to take the points.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12)
Steven: Realistically, the Steelers have nothing to play for so I think you’ll see them rest some starters in the second half. That will be enough for a backdoor cover. Browns.
Luke: The Browns won’t win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover against a team that has already clinched a first-round playoff bye.
Charles: The Steelers do have something to play for (the No. 1 seed) and the Browns are terrible. See above for my Pats-Jets breakdown and apply it here — but because they’re the Browns, they’re still losing by 13.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Steven: Both of these teams might be playing for their coach’s jobs. I’m not sure Colts players even want Chuck Pagano back so that is probably a bigger motivator for the Texans. Houston.
Luke: Ugh. I don’t know and to be honest, I don’t really care. Colts. I guess.
Charles: This is a bad football game, which means you take the points here.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3)
Steven: The Bills are better and actually have something to play for. Buffalo is the easy pick.
Luke: Ditto for this game. I’ll take the Bills simply because they’re the better team, and three points isn’t enough to tempt me into the home dogs.
Charles: The Bills have a playoff spot to play for, but I expect the Dolphins to keep this one close at home. Taking the points and expecting a one-point contest.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9)
Steven: The Cardinals have played better of late, but I’m not trusting Drew Stanton in Seattle. The Seahawks blow this one out early and never look back.
Luke: I need one more good performance to tempt me back into the Seahawks, who looked questionable before beating Dallas (which has issues of its own). Give me the points.
Charles: The Seahawks aren’t good enough to beat even a mediocre team like the Cards by more than nine. Add in the “let’s play a great game for Bruce Arians” factor and I have to take the points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3)
Steven: Patrick Mahomes against this defense? I honestly don’t know what to expect. Kansas City will be resting starters for the most part so I guess I’ll roll with Denver.
Luke: I don’t have any faith in anything about this Broncos team. I’ll take the Chiefs.
Charles: Patrick Mahomes Time!!!! Super exciting. But if the Chiefs hardly play the rest of their starters, then the Broncos end up with a solid W. Denver.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
Steven: This is why picking Week 17 games is the worst. We don’t know how much rest Sean McVay will give his starters. The 49ers may have had a chance of winning this one no matter who plays. I’ll take the points.
Luke: This line seems way too low, even if the 49ers have racked-up some impressive wins recently.
Charles: The Rams will rest starters and LOOK AT WHAT JIMMY G. DID TO THE JAGS!!! I’m riding that to a Niners cover.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Steven: Just a gut feeling: Bengals cover.
Luke: I actually think this Ravens team is going slightly under the radar in the AFC. They’ll stomp all over the Bengals.
Charles: Ravens 30, Bengals 10.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5)
Steven: The Bucs have played a lot better of late and Jameis Winston has finally looked like the quarterback we expected him to be before the season. I’ll take those points at home.
Luke: 7.5 points is a lot to get at home for a team that isn’t as bad as its record suggests. They really should cover this game.
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Charles: Taking the Saints to stomp all over the Bucs even though Tampa has looked feisty recently.
Nfl Bets Vs Spread
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Steven: The Falcons just haven’t been very convincing all season and the Panthers are on a bit of a roll. Carolina.
Luke: Ah, yes, the Steven vs. Luke Bowl. I’m going to ride with my beloved Atlanta Falcons here, obviously.
Charles: The Panthers are the better team and they’ll keep this one close even if they lose.
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-8)
Steven: This is the kind of game the Chargers usually struggle to win. Even with the Raiders out of the playoff race, I think they’ll put up a good fight here. Oakland’s defense has looked a lot better in recent weeks. Give me the points.
Luke: The Raiders offense has been sputtering hard in recent weeks, but the Chargers haven’t exactly set the world alight, either. I’ll take the points and hope Oakland will bounce back enough to cover.
Charles: Really like the Chargers here, especially with their secondary keeping Oakland’s receivers in check.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-6)
Steven: Doug Marrone says he’s approaching this game like the Jags have to win it. That’s enough for me to back the Jaguars agaisnt a bad Titans team.
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Luke: My disappointment in this Titans team knows no bounds. I have no faith they can actually cover this spread, even if the Jags do take it easy.
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Charles: The Jags have nothing to play for because they know their playoff seed. So the Titans — who need a win — should cover.