Is Blackjack Beatable
- BLACKJACK SIDE BETS. In an effort to encourage more players to play blackjack, and also to improve their margins, many land-based and online casinos have added side bets on their blackjack tables.The innocent-looking side bets usually require a rather small wager (typically only a dollar), and they generally have payoffs that are greater than the customary even-money blackjack payoffs.
- Blackjack is considered a beatable game because it is possible to put the odds in your favor and give yourself a positive expected return. However, this is not easy to do. It requires the use of a skill called card counting, which involves keeping track of the cards dealt in order to determine when the remaining cards create a situation that is favorable to the player.
A blackjack strategy chart is a matrix that shows all the possible combinations of your hand and the dealer’s exposed card. It shows the action you should take when facing each combination. These charts are based on the correct rules for employing basic strategy, so if you do what the chart says, you’ll be making the right decision every time.
Not many casino games give you an opportunity to win profits. Poker games like Texas Hold’em, blackjack (card counting), and certain progressive slots (jackpots that offer +EV) are among the select few games that provide a long-term advantage.
Video poker also carries the reputation for being a beatable game. It offers over 100% return to player (RTP) on certain variations.
Of course, these variations are hard to find and not accessible to most gamblers. So, is video poker actually beatable?
This guide discusses how you can beat video poker over the long run. It also covers if the methods covered below are actually realistic.
Video Poker Is Beatable in Some Cases
Most real money video poker variations are favorable when compared to the average casino game. For example, the common 9/6 Jacks or Better variation offers 99.54% RTP with perfect strategy.
The “9/6” refers to how this Jacks or Better game pays nine coins for a full house and six for a flush. 8/6 Jacks or Better, by comparison, only offers 98.39% payback.
Here are the highest paying video poker game machines that exist today:
- Full-pay Deuces Wild = 100.76% Return To Player
- Full-pay Joker Wild = 100.65%
- 10/7 Double Bonus = 100.17%
- 10/6 Double Double Bonus = 100.07%
The house rarely gives you an opportunity to win long-term profits. Therefore, the games listed above are quite unique.
You’re not going to get rich by playing these machines. This is especially true when you consider that the coin sizes are only worth a quarter ($1.25 per five-coin hand).
However, you can win decent money on full-pay Deuces Wild. Here’s an example on how much you can look forward to winning under ideal circumstances:
- You bet $1.25 per hand and use perfect strategy
- You play 800 hands per hour
- 25 x 800 x 0.76 = $7.60 in hourly profits
- The casino offers a 0.1% comp rate
- 800 x 0.001 = $0.80 in hourly rewards
- 6 + 0.8 = $8.40 in total hourly winnings
Most jobs today pay well over $8 an hour. But if you want to make guaranteed money from your gambling hobby, then Deuces Wild offers this chance.
Games With +EV Are Rare
You can see that multiple types of video poker offer positive expected value (+EV). But you’ll have trouble finding these machines anywhere outside of Las Vegas.
Sin City is home to the large majority of beatable video poker games. Assuming you try playing anywhere else, such as Atlantic City or Macau, you’re not going to find +EV machines.
Even when you visit Vegas, though, you’ll mostly be dealing with 10/7 Double Bonus and 10/6 Double Double Bonus games. As covered before, these variations only pay 100.17% and 100.07% RTP, respectively.
Sam’s Town is the only Las Vegas casino that currently offers full-pay Deuces Wild. As you can imagine, its Deuces Wild machines are crowded with gamblers who want to make profits. Therefore, you may not even find an open seat for the best games.
Profits Are Theoretical
Video poker isn’t like blackjack, where it offers a fairly even payout distribution. Instead, it features a wide range of payouts.
Therefore, video poker can be volatile over the short term. You may not earn a straight flush or royal flush until after playing tens of thousands of hands.
In fact, you’ll only get a royal flush on around 1 out of every 40,000 hands on average. Theoretically, you need to play at least 40k hands before receiving a royal.
Maybe you’ll find an open full-pay Deuces Wild machine and play a large amount of hands. Even so, you might need to play for many hours before actually realizing the 100.76% RTP and making profits.
Is Double Deck Blackjack Beatable
What You Must Do to Win Profits
You can see that the road towards video poker winnings is difficult. But if you’re still interested in the matter, you can follow the tips below.
Travel to Las Vegas
Some +EV video poker machines are sprinkled around Nevada. If you truly want a real chance at winning, though, then you should take a trip to Las Vegas.
Sin City is the only place in the world with full-pay Deuces Wild and Joker Wild. It also offers a fair number of Double Bonus and Double Double Bonus games.
You can also look forward to some of the best rewards programs in Vegas. These VIP benefits will add to your bottom line.
Look for the Limited +EV Machines
Once in Las Vegas, you need to start searching for the small percentage of beatable video poker games. After all, you can’t just sit down to any machine and expect to win.
Most of these games are located in downtown casinos or on the Boulder Strip. Meanwhile, you won’t find any of these machines on the Vegas Strip.
Keep in mind that open seats for the most desirable games aren’t always available. You may have better luck hitting up casinos during non-peak hours, such as the morning and late evening.
Play Countless Hands to Overcome Volatility
A royal flush only makes up around 2% of the total payback for any video poker game. Considering this fact, many gamblers put too much emphasis on getting a royal.
Nevertheless, you still need to get the best hand at some point to earn over 100% payback. You’ll likely have to log countless hands to make it happen.
On average, you’ll need 40,000 hands to get a royal. You should consider yourself blessed if you’re able to land one within the first 10,000 or 20,000 hands.
Target Days With Double Rewards
Las Vegas casinos commonly feature promotions involving double or even triple points through their loyalty programs. Assuming you visit the casino on these days, you can look forward to a lot more rewards.
These extra rewards won’t line your pockets with riches. But they’re definitely worth taking advantage of when available.
The Average Player Isn’t Going to Beat Video Poker
Unless you live in Las Vegas or can afford to frequently visit, you’re not going to win guaranteed profits. You instead need to rely on some luck to be most games.
You should treat beating video poker as more of a hobby than a legitimate way to profit from gambling. If you’re already going to be visiting Las Vegas, you might as well take advantage of the +EV machines.
But you won’t make a career out of beating video poker. The travel costs and hotel bookings will eat up your profits. Even if you live in Las Vegas, you won’t be able to make any more than $8 to $10 an hour with perfect and rapid play.
Should You Still Consider Playing Video Poker?
Video poker may not be beatable from a realistic standpoint. But that doesn’t mean you should completely avoid it.
Is Online Blackjack Beatable
It’s still a fine game that has lots of entertainment value to offer. You can play for big payouts while still enjoying some of the best payback in the casino.
Honestly, you have a better shot at winning with video poker than almost any of the other casino games. You can stick with the aforementioned tips to boost your odds.
9/6 Jacks or Better is never a bad game to play in terms of odds. Its 99.54% RTP is right in line with the world’s most-favorable blackjack games.
You can even opt for 8/5 Bonus Poker if 9/6 Jacks or Better isn’t available. It gives you a solid chance to win with its 99.17% RTP.
Conclusion
Theoretically, video poker is a beatable game. Full-pay Deuces Wild, Joker Wild, Double Bonus, and Double Double Bonus all exist in Las Vegas. You can find Double Bonus and Double Double Bonus machines in other parts of Nevada too.
However, the days where you could bet $1 coins ($5 hand with five coins) on full-pay Deuces Wild are long gone. The latter is only available in one Vegas casino through quarter machines.
You can still win profits from video poker if you’re willing to visit Sin City. But you aren’t going to make a living from doing so.
Like many casino games, video poker is most entertaining when you treat it as a hobby. Assuming you get a little luck on your side, you could land a royal flush and earn a large profit.
Techno: I’m trying to understand if the southern California“collection no-bust blackjack” is beatable, and if so, under what conditions. I completely understand one could drive about an hour and find better games -- i.e., regular blackjack -- at Indian casinos.
California Cardroom Blackjack or '21st Century Blackjack'
- Min Bet Allowed: $25
- Max Bet Allowed: $600
- A player pushes on a 3 card bust if the dealer busts with a higher total (between 23-26)
- Double down on any 2 cards (corrected)
- Double after split
- Surrender anytime (after double, after split, etc.)
- No draw after splitting aces
- $1 collection per $100 wagered
- 0.9-1.0 deck pen depending on dealer
- Casino will let you add/remove spots up to the entire table whenever you like
I spent a few days playing in various stores in the Los Angeles area, and have found neither the dealers nor the corporate bankers know how to count cards, or how to spot a card counter.
This led me to do two things with my game:
Use this bet spread (1-to-48 effective or $25-3x$500 )
True Count of 0 bet $100, TC1 bet $200, TC3 bet $300, TC4 bet 2x$300, TC5 bet 2x400, TC6 bet 3x400, TC7 bet 3x500... add $100 per spot per TC thereafter
TC negative 1 bet $50, TC neg2 bet $25, any lower than TC neg3 wong out (will explain later how I did this)
Because they have this “no-bust” rule where any time the player and dealer both bust and the players hand is 23 or high and the dealer's hand is also 26 or lower, then the hand is a push (player 22 or 26 is an automatic loss), I play my 12’s like 15s and pivot on TC+4 and play my 13’s like 12’s pivot on TC+3 (I found the modified basic strategy chart for this game but it didn’t take into account the auto-loss on 22 rule which might be newer: https://discountgambling.net/no-bust-bj-oceans-11/ ).
How am I wonging out on a private table?
Since these casinos have players making $1k-10k/hand bets at baccarat at the table next to me. I’ve found that because these are heat-free zones at these stakes. I take up the casino on its “private table” offer where if I buy in for at least $2k (yes, even playing as a refusal) they will give me my own table, sometimes in a private room, where I can request hand shuffle and re-use of same deck every hand (for shuffle tracking). When the count is really bad, I just take a two-minute break and ask them to dump the shoe and re-shuffle.
California non-Indian casinos have horrible rules and this nasty 1% ante/collection on the bet, but it is a heat-free environment (so far) and they will accommodate almost any request since the casino isn’t the one losing and the corporate bankers don’t seem to care about anything.
Is this, or can this be, a winning game even though there’s 1% juice and it pays 6:5, by using this hyper-spread and wong outs? If not, why not? The article referenced indicates the edge is possible to overcome, and if you have a legitimate no-heat store, it seems good to me.
Dog Hand: I performed a two-billion-round simulation of this game in CVData, assuming it's a six-deck game with 5/6 penetration, but without accounting for the ante. For strategy, I used the Basic Strategy from the Discount Gambling webpage you mentioned.
Using the bet schedule you supplied (capped at 3x$600 at TC >= +8, since you mentioned a $600 table max), I get your IBA is 0.562%. Since you have a 1% ante, your actual IBA is thus -0.438%.
To sim the 'A player pushes on a 3 card bust if the dealer busts with a higher total' bonus in CVData, go to the Payoff section (while there, set the BJ payout to 12:10) and set four 'Custom Bonuses':
- Bonus1 pays a variable of 1 for a player hand of a 3-card 22 with the dealer hand >22
- Bonus2 pays a variable of 1 for a player hand of a 3-card 23 with the dealer hand >23
- Bonus3 pays a variable of 1 for a player hand of a 3-card 24 with the dealer hand >24
- Bonus4 pays a variable of 1 for a player hand of a 3-card 25 with the dealer hand >25
Is Blackjack Beatable Without Card Counting
Make sure for each case that the 'Split Hands' spinner is set to 4. The 'variable 1' means you receive a bonus of 1 times your wager if the indicated condition is fulfilled; since you already lost 1 times your wager for busting, this effectively makes the overall result a push. However, to make this work, you need to have at least two 'other' players who play a 'never-bust' strategy, so that the dealer is forced to complete her hand even after you bust.
The sim showed that this bonus is worth +1.409% using How's BS. Using normal blackjack basic strategy, the bonus is worth only +0.934%. Thus, the modified BS is quite effective for this game. In either case, more than half the gain comes from the player 22/dealer >22 outcome.
Good luck with your project!
Originally published on bj21.com Green Chip, edited for this format.
Is Blackjack Beatable
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