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Who likes finding value in sports bets? Chances are, if you landed on this page, you have been scouring the internet looking around for legitimate betting advice and tips. Fortunately for you, this blog is your last stop.

I was researching the latest NBA futures lines and I noticed an opportunity to make some serious money. Whether you follow the NBA closely or not, winning money is something everyone can get excited about. The sportsbooks and online betting sites got pounded last year by all the people with winning tickets on the Golden State Warriors futures bet.

The public won a lot of money thanks to the Warriors winning the Finals last season- casino operators are more prepared this time around.

I want to explain to you where the value is in terms of betting on teams that could win the NBA Finals. The Warriors have as good of a chance as any team to win-there is no doubt about that. The problem is, the way it’s priced, there just isn’t any value in betting on the Warriors to win it all.

I did spot some value with some other teams, and that’s why I wrote this blog post. Read along as I’ll go over the numbers and explain where the openings are. There are three teams that with their current price, stand out to me as teams with a genuine opportunity to hoist the trophy this season.

Remember, I am not saying the Warriors aren’t the favorites to win the NBA Championship. What I am doing is simply telling you the teams given their current odds that may be able to get it done this season.

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Let’s start with the team who is almost a given to reach the Finals. The team with the player who has been to 7 consecutive NBA Finals and has no plans of not making this year his 8th straight:

Cleveland Cavaliers

Depending on which online site you are looking at, the Cavaliers are currently sitting around +600 to win the NBA Finals. This is A GREAT PRICE for a team that we can almost pencil in for an appearance in the NBA Finals.

There are a lot of reasons I like this Cavs squad and this particular bet, let me break it down:

First and foremost, to win the NBA Finals, you have to get there. No team in the entire National Basketball Association has proven to be more of a lock to reach the final destination than the team with Lebron James on its roster. The lack of prime competition in the Eastern Conference has cleared the pathway for Lebron and the Cavaliers in each of the last three seasons.

As good of basketball as the Boston Celtics have been playing, I think overcoming Gordon Hayward’s horrific leg injury will be too big of an ask come playoff time. Boston is good enough to win games and perhaps even a series or two in the playoffs without the services of the ultra-talented small forward.

Trying to beat the Cavaliers in a 7-game series without arguably your best player – that’s just not realistic. As much as many of you may grin in dismay, I really don’t feel like the Celtics are a legitimate threat to come out of the Eastern Conference this season.

When I look at the standings in the East, I see a few really talented young teams that are most certainly on the rise. Teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons are getting better and have a chance to be scary-good in the next few years. Beating Cleveland this season? Not so much.

See, the road to the Finals in the Eastern Conference is paved in Cleveland. Despite having to lay around -130, betting on Cleveland to win the East is a fairly reliable bet. I just don’t see any other teams that are ready to take that leap forward and supplant the King. At least not this season.

When Isiah Thomas return from his hip injury sometime in early 2018, the Cavaliers lineup will be bolstered that much more. Having another player with the skills and determination of “IT” will undoubtedly make this team that much more capable.

Not only do I think betting the Cavs to reach the Finals at -130 is a wise and profitable wager- I absolutely love them at +600 to win it all. If you have any desire in betting on Cleveland, I suggest getting active on the online sports betting sites sooner than later.

I imagine the price will only get worse for potential bettors as the season progresses – once it becomes clearer that the Cavs are going to the Finals for a fourth straight year.

Houston Rockets

Depending on how swiftly you act, betting on the Rockets to win the NBA Finals right now could prove to be a big money-making opportunity. Heading into December, the Rockets are leading the Western Conference at 17-4 and playing superb basketball. The problem is the futures odds on the online betting sites and Vegas sportsbooks aren’t representative of that. While you will find the Rockets around +800 or +900 on many sites, I saw them as high +1300!

Getting a team with the leading scorer and assist man in the NBA at +1300 seems like a bargain to me. Let me tell you why the Rockets aren’t just for show and why they have a real shot at winning it all this year. I’m not going to use “my personal expertise”. I will simply point out the facts and the data that support the claim.

When judging NBA teams, my favorite and what I believe is the most telling stat is the point differential statistic. The difference between how many points a team scores per game and how many points they allow per game. This stat is so telling because it really demonstrates how much better a team is than their competition.

Right now, at +10.8 points, the Houston Rockets lead the NBA in point differential, ahead of the Warriors at +10.2. The third-best point differential in the league is the Toronto Raptors at +7.3 points. This stat tells me that the Rockets and the Warriors are clearly the top two teams in the league. On paper, measuring the two teams comes out pretty evenly.

So when I see the Warriors are -180 to win the Finals and the Rockets are between +800 and +1300, it screams out VALUE to me. Sure, I think the Warriors have a better opportunity to win the Championship this year. But the discrepancy in the price is not justified. Teams out west are gunning for Golden State and Mike D’Antoni has his group clicking on all cylinders. A few things have to line up and go right for the Rockets to be the last team standing, but at +1300, I am willing to take my chances.

San Antonio Spurs

Before you start gawking and scratching your head, hear me out. Nobody has been talking about the San Antonio Spurs as a contender this season, and that’s just the way Greg Popovich likes it. The Spurs are actually right where they need to be. At 14-7 and the current 3-seed in the Western Conference, San Antonio is doing everything they can to bide time until their superstar returns.

The reason nobody is talking about San Antonio or taking them seriously is because they have been without Kawhi Leonard the entire campaign. The Spurs are hardly a shell of themselves without Leonard in the lineup. There are a few players in this league that are true- game-changers. I am talking about guys that can affect and change the outcome of a game.

Kawhi Leonard has elevated his game to that upper echelon status. Ask any player or coach in the league about Kawhi and his abilities and they all say the same thing. The dude is a killer on both ends of the court. The fact that the Spurs have remained competitive and are winning games without him doesn’t bode well for the rest of the NBA.

The one saving grace while the Spurs await the return of the former San Diego State University product is the emergence of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. Last year, Aldridge disappointed himself and Spurs fans by not being aggressive enough when they needed him. If you were wondering if Aldridge got the message, check out his numbers through the first 21 games this season compared to last year.

Being forced to play basketball without Kawhi on the court may end up being a blessing in disguise for LaMarcus and this Spurs squad. The team is plenty talented and experienced enough to win games and position themselves for the playoffs while Leonard recovers from his quad injury. Aldridge getting back to his All-Star caliber form is exactly what General Manager R.C. Buford wanted and needed to see for this team to be a threat once the playoffs roll around.

I know the Warriors and the Rockets are both loaded with firepower all-around. But I can promise Steve Kerr and Mike D’Antoni won’t be excited about a potential series with a healthy San Antonio team and a rested Kawhi Leonard.

So that brings me to the point of the blog, futures betting for this season’s NBA Finals. The Spurs are lurking at +1800 on most sites. Like a sitting duck, the Spurs are going unnoticed and not a lot of action is being wagered on them. You need to realize how the Spurs may look in April and May, when the season is winding down. Judging the Spurs in November without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard playing would be a huge mistake. The current odds are reflecting the current team that is out on the floor.

People seem to forget it was the Spurs leading the Warriors by 23 points on the road in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last season before Leonard was injured and forced to miss the remainder of the series. I have been watching the NBA too long to start counting out a Greg Popovich squad this early in the season. I know better, and you should too. At +1800, taking a flyer on a team that I know is going to be getting better as the season progresses. Now that’s something I am interested in.

To Summarize

This blog post was written in order to give sports bettors a “different look”. The percentage of NBA futures bets being wagered on the Golden State Warriors has been out of control, and rightfully so. The key to being able to actually make money and show a profit is by getting good value with your picks.

I agree, the Warriors have a great chance at repeating as NBA Champs this season. However, at their current ridiculous offering of -180 to win it all, I can’t get behind putting my hard-earned money on them. The price is just too high, there is simply no value there. I’d have to risk $1,800 just for the chances at profiting $1,000.

The other three teams I mentioned have legitimate chances of winning the Finals this year. The online betting sites and sportsbooks in Vegas are treating them as if their chances are much slimmer than they are in reality.

I mean just think. If an unfortunate injury were to occur involving Kevin Durant or Steph Curry, the Warriors hopes of winning a Title would be derailed. Injuries in the game of basketball aren’t that uncommon. While I would never wish or hope someone gets hurt, these are the things I have to take into account when considering laying an astronomical price such as -180 to win the whole thing.

The prices currently being offered for the Cavs, the Rockets, and the Spurs to win the NBA Championship are just too low. The ability to make a nice chunk of change is a lot more realistic by betting one of those three teams as opposed to betting on the Warriors.

Look, the general public has been wagering on the Warriors to win it all, and the lines clearly show that. I don’t bet with the general public, and neither should you.

If you are looking to bet $300 on an NBA futures bet, don’t run to your favorite online sports betting site and dump it all on Golden State. Consider taking a flyer and betting $100 each on the Cavaliers, Rockets, and Spurs. I have a funny feeling if you do you will be pleasantly surprised come June.

Enjoy the NBA season and good luck betting!

There are a lot of numbers and terms that probably aren’t going to make a lot of sense at first glance, so we will attempt to simplify and clarify as much as we can. You will need to learn how to read standard NBA odds like point spreads and totals (over/unders), but you also need to learn about the other types of NBA wagering that could be available to you.

How to Read NBA Odds

The most common types of odds you’ll run into for the NBA are point spreads and over/unders (also called totals) and we will cover them extensively. We’ll also look at some less common bet types like money lines, teasers, parlays, props, and futures.

Point Spreads

Let’s start by breaking down the pieces of a typical point spread on a hypothetical NBA game.

Rotation Number

A rotation number is a unique number given to every team to make them easy to identify when placing a wager. They help to avoid confusion when making a face-to-face wager at a sportsbook or placing a bet over the phone. For example, if you wanted to bet $100 on the Lakers at a sportsbook you would say you wanted $100 on 501 +5, not $100 on the Lakers +5.

If you are placing your wager on an online sportsbook, you do not really need to know the rotation number, but at least you will know what it is when you see it.

Keep in mind that rotation numbers are updated daily, meaning teams won’t always have the same identifying number.

Team Name

This is pretty obvious, but after the rotation number you will see the name of each team in the matchup. Typically, the first (top) team listed is the visiting team, while the second (bottom) team is home team. In our example, the Lakers are playing the Bulls in Chicago.

Point Spread

Next to each team’s name you’ll see either a positive number or a negative number (or PK, see Pick ‘Em below) – this is the point spread. A negative number represents the favorite in the matchup. In the example above, the Chicago Bulls -5 indicates that the Bulls are favored by 5 points. This is sometimes referred to as “giving” points, e.g. the Bulls are giving 5 points to the Lakers. The favorite in a matchup must win the game outright by more than the listed point spread (or the exact point spread, see Push below).

A positive number represents the underdog in the matchup. In our example this is the Lakers +5. This is sometimes referred to as “getting” points, e.g. the Lakers are getting 5 points from the Bulls. The underdog must either win the game outright or lose the game by less than the point spread listed. For example, if the Bulls won by a final score of 104-100, a bet on the Lakers +5 would be a winner because they only lost the game by 4 points.

Pick ‘Em: Books do not usually post +0 or -0 point spreads, instead these games are listed as “Pick ‘Em’s”, represented by “PK” or sometimes as “Even”. For example:

or

These all mean the same thing: there is no point spread on the game and you are simply betting on who will win the game outright.

Push: A push occurs when the result of the game lands exactly on the point spread. Using our Lakers/Bulls example from above, if any final score were to have the Bulls win by exactly 5 points, bets on either side of the game would be nullified. This is called a push or “no action”.

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Vigorish/Juice

The vigorish, sometimes called just the vig, also known as the juice, the take, or the cut is the amount charged by the bookie for taking a bet. This is displayed as a number directly after the point spread and is sometimes listed in parentheses. The vig is probably the part of the odds that is the hardest to understand if you aren’t familiar with it, but once you understand the concept behind it, it becomes much easier to read.

Most of the time the vig is going to be a negative number (see money line bets below for an explanation of a positive vig). The standard for most books is -110. What does -110 mean? There are a few different ways to look at it. A negative vig would be the amount you would need to wager in order to win $100. At -110 you would need to wager $110 in order to win $100. Another way to look at it is as a percentage. This would mean you need to bet 110% of the amount you want to win, or that you need to add 10% to the amount you want to win in order to place the bet. This translates to any vig, at -120 you would pay a 20% premium on your bet, e.g. you need to risk $120 for every $100 you wanted to win.

Why does the vig get adjusted? Books will sometimes shade a line by adding additional juice in lieu of moving the line. The motivation for this isn’t always clear, however, it’s a good bet that the vig has been moved in order to mitigate risk because of a large number (or amount) of bets on one side. For example, if a large number of bets are coming in on the Lakers +5, instead of adjusting the line to +5.5 or +6, the book might simply make new bettors pay a premium to bet the Lakers by adjusting the vig from -110 to -120.

Yet another way to calculate the vig is to convert it to a decimal by simply dividing by 100. You then take that decimal and multiply it by the amount you want to win to get the amount you need to risk in order to win that amount. Here’s the simple formula:

If you have a standard vig of -110 and a bet in multiples of $100 this is easy to calculate as 10% (or $10) for every $100, but let’s say you have a non-traditional vig and wager amount. We’ll use a vig of -115 and a desired win amount of $75.

This tells us that if we want to win $75 on a game with a vig of -115 we will need to place a bet in the amount of $86.25.

On the flip side, if you just want to know what your payout will be at a certain vig for a certain bet amount, you can use a similar formula of:

This time we will say we have $225 to wager on a game with a vig of -125.

This shows us that a bet of $225 at -125 will pay out $180.

The vig is what gives the book their edge. Think about it this way: if books can take 50% of bets on one side of a game and 50% of bets on the other side of the game at -110, they are guaranteed to profit. It’s simple math. For the example we’ll bring back the Lakers/Bulls game from above.

The book takes 100 bets on the Lakers +5 -110 to win a total of $1,000 ($1,100 wagered)
The book takes 100 bets on the Bulls -5 -110 to win a total of $1,000 ($1,100 wagered)

Let’s say the Bulls win by 10 points. All of the Bulls wagers would need to be paid out, a net loss of $1,000, however, the Lakers bets are all winners for the book, plus they get to keep their 10% vig, $1,000 + ($1,000 x 10%) = $1,100. The book lost $1,000 on the Bulls but “won” $1,100 on the Lakers, a profit of $100. This is hypothetically the best-case scenario for a book because it eliminates all of their risk. Because the betting market is imperfect, books don’t take a full 10% cut of all of the action they take, but they do average around 7%, which is a pretty hefty return.

Over/Under (Total) Bets

A total or over/under is a number set by the sportsbook to represent the total number of combined points in a game. A bet on the total can be either an over bet or an under bet. With the over you are betting that the total amount of points will be more than the set number, while a bet on the under is betting that the total points scored will be less than that set number.

The over/under for the game is usually listed long side the point spread, though it can vary from book to book. Here are a few examples of what you might see:

Some books list the over/under separately to show the vig on both sides of the total:

Others list only the favorite for the point spread and the total where you would expect the underdog to be listed:

The total here is set for 200.5 points. Let’s say we have a final score of Lakers 101, Bulls 105. The total number of points scored adds up to 205. All bets on the over would be winning bets (205 > 200.5), while bets on the under would be losses since more than 200.5 points were scored.

Money Lines

Money line bets remove the point spread, giving the option to simply pick the outright winner of the game at an adjusted vig. The bigger the point spread, the more you will have to pay in juice on the favorite, and the more you have the potential to win if betting on the underdog. Let’s take a look at an example.

Just like with point spreads, the team with the positive number is the underdog and the team with the negative number is the favorite in the matchup. The vig on the favorite is calculated the same that it would be on a point spread. Here’s how you would calculate a bet to win $150 on the Bulls money line:

As you can see, you pay a steep premium for taking the favorite. You would need to wager $352.50 on the Bulls to win outright in order to win just $150.

A bet on the underdog is calculated a little bit differently. The formula for calculating payouts on the underdog looks like this:

So, if we took the Lakers +220 for $150, we’d see:

Since the Lakers aren’t supposed to win, you are paid more for accepting that risk. In this case a $150 wager would win you $330.00 if the Lakers were to win the game outright.

Parlays

A parlay is a group of bets made together for a multiplied payout. The catch is that all bets in the group must win or the entire wager is a loss. Payouts (as well as risk) increase with the number of teams included in the parlay. Here is an example of standard parlay payouts:

These would be the standard expected payouts from a sportsbook (in this case, Bovada) if all bets listed were at the typical -110 vig. Payouts would be adjusted according to different vigs. This tends to get complicated as far as calculating a payout on your own, so we’d recommend using a parlay calculator to make life easier.

Now, using the table above let’s look at a $100 3-team parlay. If all teams win, you get paid a whooping 5.958 times your bet, $595.80 for a $100 wager. With any other outcome, your parlay would be considered a loss, whether you go 2-1, 1-2, or 0-3.

Pushes

If one (or more) of the games in your parlay pushes, the typical result is to simply payout the parlay like that game was not included. For example, if you bet a 3-team parlay and won two of the games and pushed the other, you’d be paid out like you won a 2-team parlay.

Teasers

A teaser is similar to a parlay in that it is a group of bets and all games much win, however, with a teaser bet you buy additional points on the point spread at the cost of a discounted payout. Books offer teasers at slightly different odds, but a typical NBA teaser is for 4, 4.5, or 5 points. Many books do offer extended teaser options, but these are the most common. Payouts are based on how many teams are included and how many points you buy. Here is the payout table at Bovada, which is similar to what you will see at most books:

Just like with parlays, these payouts assume the usual -110 vig. Payouts would be adjusted up or down based on the actual juice listed on each game selected.

Now let’s look at an example of a 3-team 4 point teaser. First you would find three games either against the spread or on the total that you would like to tease, let’s suppose we see the following point spreads:

Teasing them 4 points would give us 4 points in whichever direction gives us the advantage, so the odds on our teaser would be:

From the table above, you’ll see the cost/payout for a 3-team 4 point teaser is +180. This means if all three games win with your adjusted line, you would be paid at +180 odds. For example, a winning $100 bet on this particular teaser would pay $180, while if any team included in the teaser loses, you would lose $100.

Pushes in Teasers

One distinction that books make with their teasers is how they handle ties/pushes. Be sure to check on this before placing a wager so that you know what to expect. If a book uses “ties lose” the payouts are going to be better, but if, say the Clippers win by exactly 4 points and the other two games win, your teaser bet is a loser. If a book uses “ties lose” you might not get as good of odds up front, but in the same situation your teaser would be a winning bet even if the Clippers did win by exactly 4 points and the other two games won. Lastly, some books offer the option called “ties reduce” which simply means that a tie in your teaser would reduce it instead of making it an outright losing wager or winning wager. For example if the Spurs and Pistons won and the Clippers pushed, you’d be paid out like you bet a 2-team teaser instead of a 3-team teaser, so you’d be paid at +100 instead of +180.

Props

Proposition bets, commonly referred to as props, can be wagers on just about anything within a game or series. There are team props and player props, but there are really no restrictions. Anything a book can think up can be turned into a prop. Here are a few examples of props that might be available in the NBA.

NBA Player Prop

NBA Game Prop

NBA Finals Prop

There are certainly situations where betting on props would be fun or even profitable, however, the vig is usually weighted heavily in the book’s favor and there are almost always relatively low limits on the amount you can bet on props.

Futures

Futures are just odds provided on future events. In the NBA this is usually the odds to win a division, conference, or the NBA Finals. You might also find odds on awards like Rookie of the Year or NBA MVP. These types of odds can have enormous payouts, but they do keep your money tied up until the end of the season (or at least until the future event you are betting on) and oddsmakers obviously adjust the odds based on how likely a team or player is to win their event.

Futures odds can be listed like money lines or the vig, which we’ve covered extensively, however, they are sometimes expressed as fractions like 10/1 or 4/5. Anything fraction with a “1” as the denominator is easy to read. The payout for these odds is simply your bet amount multiplied by the numerator. For example, a $50 bet on a team at 10/1 would pay $500 if it were to win (50 x 10 = 500). Other fractional odds are a little harder to calculated, but the concept is the same. The easiest way to calculate these payouts is again to use a simple formula to convert the fraction to a decimal. So 4/5 = 0.8, meaning a $50 bet on a team at 4/5 odds would pay $40 (50 x 0.8 = 40).